The Asian Development Bank (ADB) on Wednesday slashed India's GDP growth forecast for FY23 to 7 per cent from the earlier estimate of 7.2 per cent mainly on account of higher inflation and a tight monetary policy. India's economy grew 13.5 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2022-23, reflecting strong growth in services, ADB said in its second supplement to Asian Development Outlook Report 2022 (ADO 2022). "However, GDP growth is revised down from ADO 2022's forecasts to 7 per cent for FY2022 (ending March 2023) and 7.2 per cent for FY2023 (ending March 2024) as price pressures are expected to adversely impact domestic consumption, and sluggish global demand and elevated oil prices will likely be a drag on net exports," ADB said.
The government is confident of meeting the fiscal deficit target of 5.9 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the nominal GDP target of 10.5 per cent despite pressure in the initial months of FY24, Economic Affairs secretary Ajay Seth told Business Standard. Normally the initial months of any financial year see proportionally a higher fiscal deficit because the expenditure is evenly paced while revenue picks up in the later months, he said. "This year the proportional fiscal deficit so far is much closer to the target than in most other years.
'...how do they consume and contribute to the GDP?'
The prospect of protracted uncertainties in the global economic landscape not only pose a risk for India's growth outlook in 2025-26, but are also likely to dent the private sector's capital raising and investment plans, the finance ministry averred on Tuesday, cautioning the country's corporates that the era of 'easy pickings' was over.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi asserted on Tuesday that India's water will no longer flow outside the country but will be utilized in the nation's interest, a statement seemingly directed at Pakistan following his government's decision to put the Indus Waters Treaty in abeyance after the Pahalgam terror attack. Addressing the ABP Network's 'India@2047' Summit, Modi emphasized his government's focus on interlinking rivers, noting that water used to be a source of conflict among states, before alluding to India's stance against Pakistan while discussing water. He highlighted the finalization of the India-UK free trade agreement as a historic milestone and underscored the importance of prioritizing national interest for achieving objectives and realizing the country's potential. Modi highlighted the country's growth and development under his government's rule, emphasizing its focus on welfare schemes and digitalization. He reiterated his government's commitment to 'Nation First' and pointed to the recent reforms undertaken, including the new Waqf law and the ban on triple talaq, which he said were aimed at benefiting the marginalized sections of society.
The risk-reward for the Indian markets, Morgan Stanley said, is turning favourable.
The sweeping tariffs proposed across sectors by US President Donald Trump are scheduled to be imposed starting April 2, with most analysts worried about their impact on companies, and in turn the financial markets. Recently, the US administration signaled that it will impose sectoral tariffs on energy, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, agriculture, copper, and lumber.
Instead of failing young Indians, the government should now focus laser-like on education, skilling, healthcare, and the environment, says Mihir S Sharma.
Global forecasting firm Oxford Economics on Monday revised downwards its India GDP growth forecast for 2021 to 10.2 per cent from 11.8 per cent previously, citing the country's escalating health burden, faltering vaccination rate and lack of a convincing government strategy to contain the pandemic. Oxford Economics also said that notwithstanding the likelihood of further mobility restrictions, it expects India's targeted lockdown approach, less stringent restrictions, and resilient consumer and business behaviour to mitigate the economic impact of the second wave.
India's services PMI recovered from its ten-month low in September to reach 58.5 in October supported by strong expansions in output and new business, which in turn boosted job creation, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index increased from 57.7 in September to 58.5 in October, as robust sales pipelines and strong demand conditions supported the upturn in business activity. In the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion, while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
'I believe that the overall demand for commercial vehicles will improve, even though there is a slowdown in the GDP.'
Investors should avoid making drastic changes to their asset allocation during a market correction.
We no longer have the ambition to rival China save through words. We are happy to be fighting ourselves and digging up disputes from centuries ago as a substitute for real development, argues Aakar Patel.
Growth in corporate profits needs to be commensurate with wages to boost the economy, Economic Survey 2024-25 said, noting that sharp disparities between the two pose risk to the economy by curbing demand. The document tabled in Parliament on Friday noted that while the labour share of GVA (gross value added) shows a slight uptick, the disproportionate rise in corporate profitsredominantly among large firmsaises concerns about income inequality.
A Mumbai court has granted anticipatory bail to Samajwadi Party MLA Abu Azmi in a case filed against him for his remarks praising Mughal ruler Aurangzeb. The court, however, cautioned Azmi to exercise restraint during interviews, warning that any irresponsible statement could spark riots. The case stems from Azmi's remarks during an interview where he praised Aurangzeb's rule and claimed that India's GDP during his reign accounted for 24 percent of the world's GDP. Azmi's lawyer argued that his client's statements were made spontaneously and without any malicious intent, while the prosecution opposed the bail plea, arguing that the remarks were made in a sensitive time following the release of a film based on the life of Chhatrapati Sambhaji Maharaj, a revered Maratha king who was captured by Aurangzeb. The court noted that the investigation was at a preliminary stage and that the investigating officer did not have the video recording of the interview when the case was filed. The court also expressed concern over the potential for Azmi's remarks to incite violence.
India has already become the world's fifth largest economy in the 75th year of Independence and will reach the $3.5 trillion mark by end-March, said the Economic Survey tabled in Parliament on Tuesday. In real terms, the economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent for the year ending March 2023. This follows an 8.7 per cent growth in the previous financial year.
Fitch Ratings has revised India's GDP forecast to minus 9.4 per cent in the current fiscal year from a previously projected contraction of 10.5 per cent after the economy staged a sharper rebound in the second quarter. In its Global Economic Outlook, Fitch said the coronavirus-induced recession inflicted severe economic scarring and the country needs to repair balance sheets and increase caution about long-term planning. "We now expect GDP to contract 9.4 per cent in the fiscal year to end March 2021 (plus 1.1 percentage point) followed by plus 11 per cent growth (unchanged) and plus 6.3 per cent growth in the following years," the rating agency said.
Investors would track a host of macroeconomic data announcements scheduled this week, including inflation numbers, and also monitor global market trends, and trading activity of foreign institutional investors, analysts said. The ongoing quarterly earnings announcements and the rupee-dollar trend would also influence the markets.
The Indian economy is recovering from the slowdown in momentum witnessed in the September quarter, driven by strong festival activity and a sustained upswing in rural demand, according to a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) bulletin released on Tuesday. An article on the 'State of the Economy' in the December bulletin noted that the global economy continues to exhibit resilience with steady growth and moderating inflation.
States are mandated to develop and implement 'heat HAPs' for prevention of heat-induced diseases. But most do not go beyond standard advisory on heat prevention.
It would be a difficult task for the Indian economy to reach the $5-trillion mark a year before the International Monetary Fund (IMF) projection of 2026-27. Pankaj Chaudhary, minister of state for finance, said in the Rajya Sabha on Tuesday that the government is taking steps to make the country a $5-trillion economy at a date earlier than the IMF's projection. In that context, it would not be difficult to meet the projection in the third quarter of FY27.
India is poised to be the third largest global economy by 2030 but rising population presents mounting challenges in basic service coverage and growing investment needs to maintain productivity, S&P Global Ratings said on Thursday. It said emerging economies have high ambitions for the next decade and beyond with India aiming to become a $30 trillion economy by 2047, from the current $3.6 trillion. India is currently the fifth largest economy.
'The bull market cycle ran for five years. It's the end of that cycle.' 'The next cycle is a down cycle, and in that down cycle, you will see the Sensex falling from their highs of around 68,000 to maybe 40,000-50,000 at the bottom of the cycle.'
India's current account deficit narrowed to $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP in the January-March quarter of FY23, mainly due to moderation in the trade deficit and a robust increase in services exports, RBI data showed on Tuesday. However, for the 2022-23 fiscal, the current account balance recorded a deficit of 2 per cent of GDP compared to 1.2 per cent in 2021-22. "India's current account deficit (CAD) decreased to $1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) in Q4:2022-23 from $16.8 billion (2.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3:2022-231, and $13.4 billion (1.6 per cent of GDP) a year ago [Q4:2021-22]," as per the RBI's 'Developments in India's Balance of Payments during the Fourth Quarter (January-March) of 2022-23'.
While the capital spending is being maintained at 3.1 per cent of the GDP, a little more would have boosted economic growth even further, suggests Rajiv Memani.
The government's indirect tax collection is expected to increase by 8.3 pc in the financial year 2025-26 (FY26), according to a report by ICICI Bank. The report also noted that this growth is higher than the 7.1 per cent increase seen in FY25 and is mainly driven by rise in GST revenue from strong urban consumption. It said "The increase is driven by higher goods and services tax collections which in-turn is explained by boost to urban consumption".
Donald Trump's Presidency of the United States will open new opportunities for India though certain sectors, especially pharma and IT, may face the heat if the incoming president decides to impose restrictions on imports and H1B visa regulations, experts said on Wednesday. Prime Minister Narendra Modi's friendly relationship with Trump will have a positive bearing on Indo-US relations but India may have to adapt its strategies to maintain cooperation in areas of mutual interest.
Citing various macroeconomic parameters that are doing pretty well, India's G20 Sherpa and former CEO of Niti Aayog Amitabh Kant projected that the country is all set to overtake Japan as 4th largest economy in the world by 2025. The size of India's GDP is currently ranked 5th, after the US, China, Germany, and Japan. It overtook the UK in 2022.
The country's real GDP growth in the first quarter will be better than the Reserve Bank's estimate of 8 per cent, economists said on Tuesday. Economists at the country's largest lender SBI pegged the growth at 8.3 per cent while domestic rating agency Icra estimated it to come even higher at 8.5 per cent. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), which expects the GDP to grow at 6.5 per cent in FY24, has estimated a growth of 8 per cent in the April-June period.
India's likely medium-term potential growth will almost certainly be markedly lower than that experienced in pre-pandemic years, warns Shankar Acharya, former chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
'The government has to explain (to the army, air force and navy chiefs) whether they want a punitive strike, a deep punitive strike, or whether they want limited war or an all-out war, will it be a circumscribed war or will it be a shallow attack along the border.'
'Not paying workers enough will end up being self-destructive or harmful for the corporate sector itself.'
...and getting GDP to measure India's data economy, recommends Ajit Balakrishnan.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
'War is not an answer. War is not a solution.' 'Deterrence is a solution. We should have the stick with us with which we can beat Pakistan.'
It will be the second Budget of the Modi 3.0 government and eighth straight Budget for Nirmala Sitharaman, rare in Indian polity.
The Adani family, led by Chairman Gautam Adani, is the most valued first-generation family business at Rs 15.44 trillion.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent, marking the first reduction in five years. The central bank also projected GDP growth for fiscal year 2026 at 6.7 percent and inflation to come down to 4.2 percent in FY26 from 4.8 percent in FY25. The RBI said the global economic backdrop remains challenging but the Indian economy continues to remain strong and resilient.
The ties between India and the Maldives came under severe strain since Muizzu, known for his pro-China leanings, took charge of the top office in November.
